This is a division game with the Panthers on short rest having to travel and being nearly a TD road favorite because of their last two games. Tons of value here on the Bucs and we got more value when Doug Martin was listed as out. I don't think Martin is worth anything other than fantasy football value. He's averaged just 3.6 ypc and I'm sure Mike James can carry the ball the same way if not better.
Cam Newton struggles when the Panthers can not establish the run. The Bucs were #1 against the run last year and are #4 this year and just come off a game holding the Falcons to 18 total rushing yards. Newton had 16 carries for 44 yards last year on the ground while he threw 2 TD's and had 2 interceptions. This is a division game and both these teams know each other well. I think the Panthers are getting too much credit/hype which is easy to happen with Newton under center following two big wins and 30+ points, but this offense will struggle again tonight. Bucs defense has only improved from last year with Revis. Even though the Bucs have not played well in pass defense I think they should be able to shut down the Panthers.
The Bucs are not as bad as people think they are 0-6 and 1-5 ATS, but they lost 3 games on late field goals and lost by 8 points last week to the Falcons because they gave up a fumble return TD and led the Eagles at the half before losing by 11. This team is over coming adversity with the Josh Freeman debacle earlier and now Mike Glennon is starting to play well. I think they play well enough to win this game, but a late drive by Cam Newton and a field goal to win it 20-17 for the Panthers.
